Don't believe anybody who starts shouting about "locks" just yet. It's only September. Both male acting categories look highly competitive. The easiest gets on paper are probably the two men from King's Speech just on account of momentum (Colin Firth) and general awards magnetism (Geoffrey Rush) combined with prime Bait. But most of the competition isn't that clear yet. Toronto will clear some things up but festival reaction can be tricky to read. It's different air that they breathe at festivals. Plus, the first three or four reviews for any given film will not always turn out to be consensus opinion. It takes more than one person's opinion to win traction.
And then you never really know which films will have staying power once the groups who try to sway Oscar voters start announcing their "best".
Here are some big question marks in ACTOR and SUPPORTING ACTOR I see coming:
- If The Social Network doesn't skew too young and cerebral for Oscar, will they recognize any of the actors and if so, which?
- If the war drama The Way Back gets a regular release (or even just a qualifier), which actors will get traction. So far reviews are kind to all of them. And what will happen, distribution wise, with Ed Harris's other awards option, What's Wrong With Virginia?
- The Coen Bros films don't often win acting nods... but when they do they actually win 50% of the time: 2 winners: Javier Bardem, Frances McDormand; 2 losing nominees: Willam H Macy, Michael Lerner. So what will happen with True Grit?
- Are some of the small films winning acting kudos only going to place at the Indie Spirits?
- Do we think Mark Ruffalo or Sam Rockwell are finally going to get a nomination... or will both have to wait again?
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