Points to our friend Glenn for pointing this out. Here's Jacki Weaver's acceptance speech at the Australian Film Awards for Animal Kingdom -- introduced by her current co-star Cate Blanchett. The speech is so adorable we are just going to pretend that it was delivered to us in America via satellite for her Los Angeles Film Critics Association triumph and NBR win.
God, they get us every time! The National Board of Review has haters all over the internet but despite endless attacks on their legitimacy claiming that their choices are nothing but studio banquet-table-buying driven ... we (collectively speaking) still always let them kick it off.
Sometimes we get a kick out of it. Sometimes we just get kicked in the gut. It's totally an S&M relationship. But through it all we admire the way they've maintained their enviable kick-off mythos well despite the growth of movie awards in which they can no longer shouting "first!" like monosyllabic screen-refreshing trolls. (Gotham, EFA, BIFA, Satellite and Spirit Awards nominations have already come and gone after all... though most of them are not dealing with the whole pool of Oscar hopefuls the way the NBR does.)
The NBR prizes are usually a mix of "awesome! well done" and "aren't you embarrassed to publicly state that?" ...and this year? There's arguably more "awesome!" than "wtf" this time 'round including major boosts for Another Year, Animal Kingdom and The Social Network.
BEST PICTURE The Social Network BEST DIRECTOR David Fincher, The Social Network
Four major prizes to The Social Network undoubtedly marks this as the film to beat for Oscar. I know that people are saying "The King's Speech!" But I believe that in the end, that film's appeal will be shorter-lived. Just my hunch as to how it plays out (though I expect the Globes and the BFCA will give The King's Speech a major boost very soon) There's still nearly two months before Oscar nominations let alone the time of full stop campaigning after that. Contrary to popular belief, the NBR Best Picture prize does not doom your Oscar chances. It's not totally correlative either but so what. To each (group) their own.
BEST ACTRESS Lesley Manville, Another Year BEST ACTOR Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (performance review) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (performance review) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Christian Bale, The Fighter
Of the acting prizes the NBR favor provides a major boost for Eisenberg and Weaver who are both difficult sells for traditional Oscar choices in some ways: Eisenberg because he's young for the category and the character is abrasive, Weaver because she's in a small film from overseas. But great choices by the NBR here. May this push at least a few dozen more AMPAS members towards careful consideration of these star turns.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Chris Sparling, Buried
This will have to count as the biggest shock, yes?
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network FOREIGN FILM Of Gods and Men, France DOCUMENTARY Waiting For Superman ANIMATED FEATURE Toy Story 3
ENSEMBLE CAST The Town
I enjoyed this movie alot and it's just the type that wins these "ensemble" prizes, given that it's a big cast of recognizable faces. But I prefer movies with more group interaction for these prizes -- a personal thing. This film has mostly one-on-one scenes other than what is for me the standout scene: that great accidental lunch meeting between Rebecca Hall, Jeremy Renner and Ben Affleck. Awkkkkkwward.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone SPOTLIGHT AWARD (DIRECTORIAL DEBUT) Sebastian Junger and Tim Hetherington Restrepo SPECIAL FILMMAKING ACHIEVEMENT (writing, directing and producing) Sofia Coppola, Somewhere WILLIAM K EVERSON FILM HISTORY AWARD Leonard Maltin NBR FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION Fair Game, Conviction, Howl
And finally... the Lists.
Top Eleven Films(because a top ten isn't good enough for the NBR!) (alpha order): Another Year , The Fighter , Hereafter, Inception , The King’s Speech , Shutter Island, The Social Network, The Town , Toy Story 3, True Grit and Winter’s Bone
Tolda that Hereafter would be here, though it wasn't a difficult call at all. Despite the film's tepid reviews, NBR voters are ever faithful to their Eastwood. This is his 8th consecutive film to be so honored.
Top Ten Independent Films (alpha order): Animal Kingdom, Buried , Fish Tank, The Ghost Writer , Greenberg, Let Me In , Monsters Please Give, Somewhere and Youth in Revolt
Another snub for Blue Valentine, which is having a rough week given the lack of Spirit Awards love, too. Either they withheld the film too long, the stupid MPAA rating scared people off or the film is just too brutal emotionally for ballot love. Shame. It's such a good movie.
Top Six Foreign Films (alpha order): I Am Love, Incendies, Life Above All , Of Gods And Men , Soul Kitchen and White Material
The buzz on Incendies is still just a low hum but the humming is fiercely tuneful. I keep hearing words like "astounding." So perhaps it's the film to beat for Oscar's foreign film competition. Note that Biutiful did not make their list.
Top Six Documentary Films (alpha order): A Film Unfinished, Inside Job, Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work, Restrepo , The Tillman Story and Waiting For “Superman”.
BIGGEST SNUB STORY: Black Swan, 127 Hours and The Kids Are All Right, which have all been winning major attention, were completely shut out. No prizes for any of them. Other films that maybe weren't destroyed but certainly weren't boosted by today's announcement were Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine and all of those one week qualifying releases that were hoping for last minute attention (The Way Back, Barney's Version, Biutiful, Frankie & Alice).
BIGGEST BOOSTS:The Social Network (which was a gimme anyway), but more importantly Mike Leigh's Another Year (1 prize, 1 list) and David Michôd's Animal Kingdom (1 prize, 1 list)
MOST BORING DEVELOPMENT: The endless fawning over Waiting For 'Superman'. With so many fine documentaries this year, why that one? The Lottery, on the very same topic, is more focused and convincing (though it comes without any bells and whistles), if you must reward this topic. *
Two "Yelena"s: Cate (on stage) and Julianne (on film)
It's a worthwhile rental so long as you give it your full attention as it's full of intricacies and performances of quiet but potent dramedic depth. If you're in Australia, though, you can see more than a rehearsal. You can see the real thing on stage.
VANYA ON 42ND STREET
VANYA ON PIER 4, HICKSON ROAD
Andrew Upton (Mr. Cate Blanchett) has adapted the play for the Sydney Theater Company. The cast is full of familiar Australian movie faces like Cate herself, Hugo Weaving, Richard Roxburgh (Moulin Rouge!) and this year's Best Supporting Actress hopeful Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom). I expect a full report from Australian readers who get a chance to see it. Do as I say! The production is currently playing and runs through January 1st, 2011.
Can Cate's "Yelena" measure up to Julianne's sublime take?
And when is Hugo Weaving going to get another worthwhile film role? Lately the movies have reduced him to a disembodied voice or cameo player in noisy "event" movies (V For Vendetta, Lord of the Rings, Transformers). His next big role is the villainous Red Skull in Captain America: The First Avenger. But given the role, we still won't really be looking at his face, will we?
And what's wrong with his face, I ask. It's got real character. Stop hiding him, moviemakers!
Its main competition for the coveted prizes, if you go by nomination counts, is Bright Star(different eligibility calendar over there in Australia). I haven't really covered the Australian Awards before -- we lean on Glenn for that -- but since i've seen three of their Best Picture nominees this time around (the two leaders plus the aborigine musical Bran Nue Dae), why not?
Complete nomination list -- with more Oscar adjacent & actor related comments -- after the jump.
Tomorrow When The War Began. Andrew Mason, Michael Boughen.
I'm actually not sure which of these categories Australian's consider their "Best Picture" but it's mostly the same competition anyway with only the widower drama The Boys Are Back and the widow drama The Tree working Swing position. Maybe Clive Owen & Charlotte Gainsbourg, who star as those grieving single parents, should've just gotten married to end their suffering: The Tree is Back!
AFI Award for Best Direction
Animal Kingdom. David Michôd.
Beneath Hill 60. Jeremy Hartley Sims.
Bright Star. Jane Campion.
The Tree. Julie Bertuccelli.
Macquarie AFI Award for Best Original Screenplay
Animal Kingdom. David Michôd.
Beneath Hill 60. David Roach.
Bright Star. Jane Campion.
Daybreakers. Peter Spierig, Michael Spierig.
It'd be nice to see Michôd fighting for a spot with Oscar in the Original Screenplay category, but even with screeners going out so early, that could be a tough sell. But still, his is an unusually taut and smart script.
Macquarie AFI Award for Best Adapted Screenplay
Bran Nue Dae. Reg Cribb, Rachel Perkins, Jimmy Chi.
The Boys Are Back. Allan Cubitt.
The Tree. Julie Bertuccelli.
Tomorrow When The War Began. Stuart Beattie.
AFI Award for Best Cinematography
Animal Kingdom. Adam Arkapaw.
Beneath Hill 60. Toby Oliver ACS.
Bright Star. Greig Fraser.
The Waiting City. Denson Baker ACS
With apologizes to the two films here I haven't seen I'll be disappointed if Greig Fraser loses this. I'm still mortified that he collected so few nominations and wins here in America. Bright Star is jaw-droppingly beautiful. It's a shame the way it was treated in last year's Oscar race.
AFI Award for Best Editing
Animal Kingdom. Luke Doolan.
Beneath Hill 60. Dany Cooper ASE.
Bright Star. Alexandre de Franceschi ASE.
Tomorrow When The War Began. Marcus D’Arcy.
AFI Award for Best Sound
Animal Kingdom. Sam Petty, Rob Mackenzie, Philippe Decrausaz.
Beneath Hill 60. Liam Egan, Alicia Slusarski, Mark Cornish, Tony Murtagh.
Bran Nue Dae. Andrew Neil, Steve Burgess, Peter Mills, Mario Vaccaro, Blaire Slater, David Bridie, Scott Montgomery.
Tomorrow When The War Began. Andrew Plain, David Lee, Gethin Creagh, Robert Sullivan.
AFI Award for Best Original Music Score
Animal Kingdom. Antony Partos, Sam Petty.
Beneath Hill 60. Cezary Skubiszewski.
Bran Nue Dae. Cezary Skubiszewski, Jimmy Chi, Patrick Duttoo Bin Amat, Garry Gower, Michael Manolis Mavromatis, Stephen Pigram.
Bright Star. Mark Bradshaw.
Bran Nue Dae does have fun musical numbers though typically the trailer doesn't really play that up.
AFI Award for Best Production Design
Animal Kingdom. Jo Ford.
Beneath Hill 60. Clayton Jauncey.
Bright Star. Janet Patterson.
Tomorrow When The War Began. Robert Webb, Michelle McGahey, Damien Drew, Bev Dunn.
AFI Award for Best Costume Design
Animal Kingdom. Cappi Ireland.
Beneath Hill 60. Ian Sparke, Wendy Cork.
Bran Nue Dae. Margot Wilson.
Bright Star. Janet Patterson
AFI Award for Best Lead Actor
Brendan Cowell. Beneath Hill 60.
James Frecheville. Animal Kingdom.
Ben Mendelsohn. Animal Kingdom.
Clive Owen. The Boys Are Back.
AFI Award for Best Lead Actress
Abbie Cornish. Bright Star.
Morgana Davies. The Tree.
Charlotte Gainsbourg. The Tree.
Jacki Weaver. Animal Kingdom.
I had assumed that Abbie Cornish could finally collect a trophy for Bright Star until I realized that Jacki Weaver was sharing this category. Though she is absolutely the centrifugal force in Animal Kingdom, she's not really the lead (that'd be Frecheville... and arguably Mendelsohn) and she's offscreen quite a lot and sometimes backgrounded within the scenes she is in.
AFI Award for Best Supporting Actor
Joel Edgerton. Animal Kingdom.
Guy Pearce. Animal Kingdom.
Kodi Smit-McPhee. Matching Jack.
Sullivan Stapleton. Animal Kingdom.
Tattoed and Tormented: Sullivan Stapleton in Animal Kingdom
I need to take this opportunity to thank the AFI for not nominated Geoffrey Rush who is typically so far over the top he's back down again in Bran Nue Dae. But I am surprised that they saw through his extravagant hamming given his Master Thespian rep. This is a war of cops vs. criminals from Animal Kingdom with wee Kodi as the potential beneficiary of vote splitting. My favorite of the three Kingdom men is Sullivan Stapleton as the tattooed and tightly-wound comparatively tender Craig. But not knowing anything about AFI politics or Australian favoritism, I'm assuming that Pearce is most likely to win given his stardom that he gets the film's big theme-speaking moment.
AFI Award for Best Supporting Actress
Julia Blake. The Boys Are Back.
Kerry Fox. Bright Star.
Deborah Mailman. Bran Nue Dae.
Laura Wheelwright. Animal Kingdom.
In case you're wondering, Wheelwright plays the teen girlfriend of Animal Kingdom's lead character. I'm pleased to see Fox given props for her subtle but very well modulated reactive mother role in Jane Campion's romantic biopic.
AFI INTERNATIONAL AWARD FOR BEST ACTOR
Simon Baker. The Mentalist, Season 2. Nine Network
Ryan Kwanten. True Blood, Season 3. Showcase
Kodi Smit-McPhee. The Road
Sam Worthington. Avatar
I haven't yet seen Season 3 but it's nice to see acclaim for Ryan Kwanten who is True Blood's secret weapon, if you ask me. He's just so funny. He offers up a very smart take on a very dim character. As for Kodi, I wrote extensively about The Road here.
AFI I International Award for Best Actress
Toni Collette. United States of Tara, Season 2. ABC1
Bojana Novakovic. Edge of Darkness
Mia Wasikowska. Alice in Wonderland
Naomi Watts. Mother and Child
Um. Ewwww. on the Wasikowska nomination. I think she's quite a good actress but I think she's quite ungood in that movie. Meanwhile: Go TONI!!!
AFI Young Actor Award
Ashleigh Cummings. Tomorrow When The War Began
Morgana Davies. The Tree
James Frecheville. Animal Kingdom
Harrison Gilbertson. Beneath Hill 60
AFI Visual Effects Award
Daybreakers. Peter Spierig, Michael Spierig, Rangi Sutton, James Rogers, Randy Vellacott
The Tree. Dave Morley, Felix Crawshaw, Claudia Lecaros, Tim Walker
Tinglewood. Wil Manning
Tomorrow When The War Began. Chris Godfrey, Sigi Eimutis, Dave Morley, Tony Cole
AFI AWARD FOR BEST CHILDREN’S TELEVISION DRAMA
Dance Academy. Joanna Werner ABC
Dead Gorgeous. Ewan Burnett, Margot McDonald. ABC
Lockie Leonard. Kylie Du Fresne. Nine Network
My Place. Penny Chapman. ABC
AFI AWARD FOR BEST CHILDREN’S TELEVISION ANIMATION
dirtgirlworld. Cate McQuillen. ABC
Erky Perky. Kristine Klohk, Barbara Stephen, Tracy Lenon. Seven Network
The Legend Of Enyo. Avrill Stark, Michael Christensen. Seven Network
AFI Award for Best Television Comedy Series
Lowdown. Nicole Minchin, Amanda Brotchie, Adam Zwar. ABC
Review With Myles Barlow, Season 2. Dean Bates. ABC
Wilfred II. Jenny Livingston, Tony Rogers, Adam Zwar, Jason Gann. SBS
AFI Award for Best Light Entertainment Television Series
The Gruen Transfer, Series 3. Andrew Denton, Anita Jacoby, Jon Casimir, Debbie Cuell. ABC1
Hungry Beast, Series Two. Andrew Denton, Andy Nehl. ABC1
MasterChef Australia. Margaret Bashfield, Judy Smart, Caroline Spencer. Network Ten
Talkin’ ’bout Your Generation. Peter Beck. Network Ten
AFI Award for Best Television Drama Series
The Circuit, Series 2. Ross Hutchens, Colin South. SBS
Rush, Season 3. John Edwards, Mimi Butler. Network Ten
Spirited. Claudia Karvan, Jacquelin Perske, John Edwards. W
Tangle, Season 2. John Edwards, Imogen Banks. Showcase
AFI Award for Best Telefeature, Mini Series or Short Run Series
A Model Daughter: The Killing Of Caroline Byrne. Karl Zwicky. Network Ten
Hawke. Richard Keddie. Network Ten
AFI Award for Best Direction in Television
Dance Academy – Episode 2, ‘Week Zero’. Jeffrey Walker. ABC
Hawke. Emma Freeman. Network Ten
Rush, Season 3 – Episode 308, ‘Train’. Grant Brown. Network Ten
Tangle, Season 2 – Episode 16, ‘Lost and Found’. Emma Freeman. Showcase
AFI Award for Best Screenplay in Television
Hawke. Glen Dolman. Network Ten
Review With Myles Barlow, Season 2 – Episode 6, ‘Happiness, Escapism, Acceptance’. Trent O’Donnell, Phil Lloyd. ABC
Tangle, Season 2 – Episode 15, ‘Sleepwalking’. Fiona Seres. Showcase
Wilfred II – Episode 7, ‘Dog Star’. Jason Gann, Adam Zwar. SBS
AFI Award for Best Lead Actor in a Television Drama
Garry McDonald. A Model Daughter: The Killing Of Caroline Byrne. Network Ten
Corey McKernan. Lockie Leonard. Nine Network
Aaron Pedersen. The Circuit, Series 2. SBS
Richard Roxburgh. Hawke. Network Ten
AFI Award for Best Lead Actress in a Television Drama
Cheree Cassidy. Underbelly: The Golden Mile – Episode 7, ‘Full Force Gale’. Nine Network
Justine Clarke. Tangle, Season 2. Showcase
Poppy Lee Friar. Dead Gorgeous. ABC
Catherine McClements. Tangle, Season 2. Showcase
AFI Award for Best Guest or Supporting Actor in a Television Drama
Damien Garvey. Underbelly: The Golden Mile – Episode 10, ‘Hurt on Duty’. Nine Network
Rhys Muldoon. Lockie Leonard – Episode 11, ‘Snake Hide Oil. Nine Network
John Waters. Offspring. Network Ten
Ben Winspear. My Place – Episode 5, ‘1968 Sofia’. ABC
AFI Award for Best Guest or Supporting Actress in a Television Drama
Linda Cropper. Satisfaction, Season 3 – Episode 8, ‘Not Vanilla’. Showcase
Sacha Horler. Hawke. Network Ten
Asher Keddie. Hawke. Network Ten
Deborah Mailman. Offspring. Network Ten
AFI Award for Best Performance in a Television Comedy
Paul Denny. Lowdown. ABC
Jason Gann. Wilfred II. SBS
Phil Lloyd. Review With Myles Barlow, Season 2. ABC
AFI Award for Best Feature Length Documentary
Contact. Martin Butler, Bentley Dean. ABC1
Inside The Firestorm. Lucy Maclaren, Alex West. ABC
The Snowman. Rachel Landers, Dylan Blowen.
Strange Birds In Paradise – A West Papuan Story. Jamie Nicolai, John Cherry.
AFI Award for Best Documentary Under One Hour
A Thousand Encores: The Ballets Russes In Australia. Sharyn Prentice, Marianne Latham, Lavinia Riachi. ABC
Rudely Interrupted. Susie Jones, Benjamin Jones. ABC1
Surviving Mumbai. Andrew Ogilvie, Andrea Quesnelle. ABC
You Only Live Twice – The Incredibly True Story Of The Hughes Family. Ruth Cullen. ABC1
AFI Award for Best Documentary Series
Addicted To Money. Andrew Ogilvie, Andrea Quesnelle. ABC
Disable Bodied Sailors. Karina Holden, Nick Robinson. SBS
Kokoda. Andrew Wiseman. ABC1
Liberal Rule- The Politics That Changed Australia. Nick Torrens, Frank Haines. SBS
AFI Award for Best Direction in a Documentary
A Thousand Encores: The Ballets Russes In Australia. Amanda Chang. ABC
Contact. Martin Butler, Bentley Dean. ABC1
Inside The Firestorm. Jacob Hickey. ABC
Strange Birds In Paradise – A West Papuan Story. Charlie Hill-Smith.
AFI Award for Best Cinematography in a Documentary
Disable Bodied Sailors – Episode 3. Nick Robinson. SBS
Miracles - Episode 1, ‘Miracle in the Storm’. Tony Oliver ACS. ABC1
Strange Birds In Paradise – A West Papuan Story. Angus Kemp.
Surviving Mumbai. Jim Frater. ABC
AFI Award for Best Editing in a Documentary
A Thousand Encores: The Ballets Russes In Australia. Karin Steininger. ABC
Contact. Tania Nehme. ABC1
Inside The Firestorm. Steven Robinson. ABC
Surviving Mumbai. David Fosdick. ABC
AFI Award for Best Sound in a Documentary
A Thousand Encores: The Ballets Russes In Australia. Brett Aplin, Andrew McGrath, Erin McKimm. ABC
Inside The Firestorm. Jock Healy, Tristan Meredith. ABC
Kokoda – Episode 1, ‘The Invasion’. David Bridie, Chris Goodes, Ian Grant, Patrick Slater. ABC1
Strange Birds In Paradise – A West Papuan Story. Mik la Vage, Doron Kipen, David Bridie.
AFI Award for Best Short Animation
The Lost Thing. Sophie Byrne, Andrew Ruhemann, Shaun Tan.
Zero. Christopher Kezelos, Christine Kezelos.
AFI Award for Best Short Fiction Film
Deeper Than Yesterday. Ariel Kleiman, Benjamin Gilovitz, Sarah Cyngler, Anna Kojevnikov.
The Kiss. Sonya Humphrey, Ashlee Page.
The Love Song Of Iskra Prufrock. Lucy Gaffy, Lyn Norfor.
Suburbia. Antonio Oreña-Barlin, Richard Halsted.
AFI Award for Best Screenplay in a Short Film.
A Parachute Falling In Siberia. Sarah Shaw, Ian Meadows.
Deeper Than Yesterday. Ariel Kleiman.
Glenn Owen Dodds. Trent Dalton.
The Kiss. Ashlee Page
I know the Film Experience has plentiful Australian readers -- i can see the stats, don't hide! -- so let us know: How did the AFI do this year? As for the rest of you, do you think Jacki Weaver is going to pull off that Supporting Actress Slot with the American Academy? And do you share the love of Kwanten on True Blood and Collette as Tara?
This T to your left, is my favorite piece of swag for precursor season thus far. They passed some law that bloggers are supposed to tell you what gifts they get, right? It's really not complicated in my case. I get what other members of certain critics groups get (I'm a member of the BFCA): some screeners, the occassional film book, random infrequent goodies such as this. It's a little hard to see but basically it's a Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom) bust with her sure-to-become classic line "You've done some bad things, sweetie." scrawled under her face.
The Supporting Actress Race is, as you've presumably surmised (being the smarty that you are) unpredictable at the moment. Almost everyone who people think might be in the running is an uncertainty.
The obstacles to certainty
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech) AMPAS has resisted all but one of her worthy perfs. And even that one time (The Wings of the Dove) when she absolutely deserved the actual win, she lost.
Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole) has a small film emerging in the annual December glut.
Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham) is fun but the role is kind of easy, if you will. If they're in the mood to hand her a career acknowledgement, it's a go but otherwise...
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom). Hollywood doesn't know her and might not see her film.
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit). The actors branch is, for whatever reason, semi-resistant to Coen Bros pictures.
Melissa Leo & Amy Adams (The Fighter) are in the same film that few have yet seen.
Sissy Spacek (Get Low) is in a film where the men get almost all the attention.
Barbra Hershey & Mila Kunis (Black Swan) are in a film that might be too outre for the acting branch and one in which the lead actress is hogging all the attention anyway. Weirder still: though Hershey and Portman are the ones with the nominatable roles, Kunis is the only one to win anything thus far (Venice by way of Quentin Tarantino).
Kristin Scott Thomas (Nowhere Boy) has the Bonham Carter problem, doesn't she?
Saoirse Ronan (The Way Back) has a small film with a huge cast in the annual December glut.
Rosamund Pike (Barney's Version & Made in Dagenham) is quite a good actress but she never seems to generate buzz. Incidentally, she gets two of the very best moments in Made in Dagenham but still people aren't talking about her and you only hear "Miranda & Sally".
Dale Dickey (Winter's Bone) is in a small film where the lead actress hogs the attention.
Marion Cotillard (Inception) is in a movie that's not exactly an "actor's movie"
Loretta, Whoopi, Janet, Kerry, Thandie, Phylicia, Anika, Macy, etc... (For Colored Girls) They have the internal competition problem times infinity. For any traction whatsoever one or two of them will have to steal the entire show.
And so on and so on. DISCUSS.
Incidentally, at least one film writer wants Annette Bening to move to supporting for The Kids Are All Right. While it's true that she could probably win the category with ease were she to be nominated there, I doubt the Academy would buy the classification. For one thing, she's top billed, which has not been the case in other instances where they've demoted a co-lead to supporting. And they don't always buy the ridiculous re-classifications, anyway. I mean, trying to sell The Bening as supporting Julianne Moore would as foolish as trying to sell the idea that Jamie Foxx was supporting Tom Cruise in Collat--- oh f***, never mind.
I've opted to completely overhaul BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS which is a total cloudy mess. Beyond arguably Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Dale Dickey (Winter's Bone), Sissy Spacek (Get Low) and the Nowhere Boy women (Kristin Scott Thomas and Anne Marie Duff who have been kicking around festivals and international release for a year with this film), no one has yet proven their viability. It's all just assumptions about the films, their roles and the overall traction potential. Given that none of those women have yet laid claim to a super excited committed fanbase except Jacki Weaver, I've pushed her into predictions. In a wide open field this late in the game, a committed fanbase who have been beating your drum for seven months already will surely help. "Sweetie," I don't want to overstate the point and sound like I've built a "Jacki Weaver for the gold!" shrine in my living room, but it's the type of film-seizing performance that gets nominated -- period -- with a threat to win, if voters see the film. A mighty big "if" I'm fully aware.
Questions. I'd love to hear your answers
Do you think The Kids Are All Right can hog 40% of the BEST ACTRESS category?
Do you buy the category placements of Halle Steinfeld and Lesley Manville?
Which of these performances are you most excited about sight unseen?
Do you have any suspicions about who might actually win? (I don't!)
Do you think they'll just give up on supporting actress and nominate this field based on the Best Picture candidates?
Do you think the acting in Black Swan can win favor, even if they don't love the film?
So many release dates are up in the air. Who won't we see until next fall/winter?
